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Mover Mike

Mike is a retired stock broker, and now supports his wife's furniture business. He is her warehouseman, deluxer, and marketing guru. In addition, he writes poetry and finds abundance, health and joy in the world around him while pondering life's little mysteries

Sunday, December 31, 2006

A Baker's Dozen Plus One, Predictions for 2007!
1. Oregon State will break the trend and win the Civil War at Oregon!

2. Katie Couric will preempt coverage of March Madness NCAA Basketball title game with s-l-o-w talk about the failure of the swallows to return to Capistrano.

Last year's predictions (here)

3. In 2006, I predicted Gold would go to $750 per ounce. It reached $723. In 2007 I predict Gold will trade as high as $850. It closed on Friday, Dec. 29th at $636.

4. In 2006, I predicted Silver would go to $13 per ounce. It reached $15.20. In 2007 I predict Silver will trade as high as $19. It closed on Friday, Dec. 29th at $12.85.

5. In 2006, I predicted Oil would trade at $75 per barrel or higher. It reached $77.95. In 2007 I predict Oil will trade no higher than $70. It closed on Friday, Dec. 29th at $61.05.

6. In 2006, I predicted the Dow Jones Average would hit 9000. It closed 2005 at 10,717.50. Instead the DJIA closed 2006 at 12,463.15. There is so much money sloshing around the world that has to go somewhere. The money has moved from high techs to housing and oil and now to the stock market. I suspect it will desert the stock market, so I will stick to my 2006 prediction of DJIA 9,000. The money could go to precious metals, but it may be too early, yet.

7. Israel did not attack Iran's nuclear facilities as I predicted, but it is still possible. Since we are "At War", I am more inclined to think that war will flair between Iran and the U.S., through some incident in the Persian Gulf between our ships and their cruise missiles.

8. Is there a black president in our future? Condi Rice not Obama, who will be torpedoed by Hillary, but there will be no fingerprints.

9. In 2007, everyone will know the name, Leo Wanta!

10. In 2007 the USD index will trade at a new all time low of 78. It closed 2006 at 83.43.

11. Hat tip to Joe Scarborough:

Gore will feel growing pressure to save the party from Hillary Clinton.
Al "The Hoaxster" Gore has the media behind him and all the children have indoctrinated their parents with (whisper) global warming. Even I would vote for Al Gore over Hillary Clinton and John McCain!

12. Since there is no difference between Dems and the GOP, the Dems will find themselves supporting the war in the Middle East and our participation will get bigger.

13. There will be a large earthquake on the West Coast of U.S. (above 5.9). I suspect it will be in the NW.

14. Dreamgirls will be best picture and Jennifer Hudson will win Best Supporting Actress for her role as Effie.

Saturday, December 30, 2006

Another Maupin Quake
MAP 2.6 2006/12/30 11:28:38 45.121 -120.937 15.9 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR
6.3 in Yemen!
MAP 6.3 2006/12/30 08:30:50 13.383 51.378 10.0 GULF OF ADEN

ADEN, Yemen: An earthquake of 6.3 magnitude struck the Gulf of Aden Saturday, off the coast of southeast Yemen but there were no reports of casualties or damage as Sunni Muslims celebrated the first day of the most important holiday on the Islamic calendar.

Friday, December 29, 2006

Two Oregon Quakes
MAP 1.2 2006/12/29 11:57:16 44.161 -121.921 7.6 33 km ( 20 mi) WSW of Sisters, OR

MAP 2.2 2006/12/29 06:13:47 45.117 -120.932 14.4 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Beavers Win!!! 39 to 38!
That's just about the finest game I have ever seen. Beaver fans have a great team to be proud of, and Mizzou, you battled like no other team, and you also can be proud. Temple is one of the finest runners I've seen. My heart was in my throat every time he touched the ball. Time after time Oregon State had Missouri in third and very long and you found a way to make a first down. I am proud of Mike Riley and the team for wanting to go for 2 points for the PAT. Most would have settled for a tie and slugged it out in OT. What a finish.

On another note CBS has got to have its head examined for interupting the game for funeral highlights that could easily have waited. Is it just me or does Katie Couric talk s-l-o-w? I called KOIN, but the lines were jammed. Not a good moment for local fans.

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Mud Volcanies
These mud volcanoes in Romania look a lot like Yellowstone:


Volcano...very, Very Interesting !!! (part 2) - video powered by Metacafe

Hat tip Mini TV Clips + Online Games

Tin Hits Record On Supply Fears
From Forbes,
On Wednesday, the price of tin skyrocketed to a 17-year high. On the London Metal Exchange, the price per ton for delivery in three months reached $11,350, the highest level since 1989.

[...]

According to data collected by Societe Generale, the shortage of tin supplies will rise to 25,000 tons in 2007 from a deficit of 3,000 tons in 2006.

Tin consumption is rising in part, according to BaseMetals.com, because of increasing environmental pressure placed on solder manufacturers to eliminate lead. As a consequence, the amount of tin content in solder, used to join metal in electronics and plumbing, has climbed to 97% from 30%.(emphasis added)

But, there is no inflation!

Gale Norton to Shell!
Do you wonder why I am pessimistic. Look at the revolving door between government and industry:
Gale Norton is back providing oversight of energy development issues on public lands in the American West, this time as a key legal advisor for a major global oil company.

Months after she resigned her cabinet post as President Bush's Interior Secretary—and then seemed to disappear from public view—the Coloradan apparently has accepted an offer to serve as counsel for Royal Dutch Shell PLC.

Shell, one of the world's largest producers of oil, was also one of the companies that Norton's Interior Department routinely engaged on matters of drilling in sensitive ecological settings.

How can you regulate a company and then go to work for them? If you were Shell, would you hire Norton if she had screwed you over?

The Dread, Real or Hoax?
Gol' Dang, now we are getting some freaking returns on our defense dollars: The Dread!

United States Patent 6520169, owner Trinamic Technologies, LLC, West Hartford, CT

The Reality
The newspapers are filled with lookbacks at 2006, the biggest stories, the most blogged words, the best toys, cars, stocks, mutual funds, ad infinitum. Me, I am more pessimistic about the trend and the future than ever before.

We argue over politics, but it makes no difference who gets elected. We will spend more money that we don't have, we will send more men to foreign countries to die, we will have more regulations, and our government will employ more people. Those who will run for the presidency will turn my stomach, the schools will want more money, yet only 50% of the students can pass minimum standards at graduation. The hoax that is global warming will make headlines and the few who will say anything intelligent about the lack of proof will be overwhelmed.

In Socialism Again, J. R. Nyquist shares my pessimism.

Over the past thousand years the West has "evolved" from the simple Iron Age economy of post-Roman feudalism to the ultra-complex global economy of today. This development occurred because economic freedom and governments with built-in checks and balances gave ordinary people a chance to build something for themselves and their posterity. But that wasn't all. Aristocratic and Christian idealism successfully mitigated the usual course of enslavement and pillaging. The lords and nobles of England, in particular, exercised a noble self-limitation (and constitutional restraint). Quite logically, the fastest development of wealth went to the freest and ablest societies, the ones least encumbered by tyrannical or rapacious overlords. England and its offshoot, the United States, were the leading countries in this process.

So why do I say that this process approaches a dead end?

My analysis has nothing to do with resource depletion, global warming or Marxian pauperization. We can all see that Western ideals of freedom have been eroding away. Welfare entitlements, environmentalism and wealth redistribution have proven irresistible. Liberty is giving way to regulation. The noble creed of aristocratic culture based on a mix of classical and Christian ideas has fallen before a demagogic cycle of political promises, a regime of gross flattery aimed at the common man, increased government bureaucracy, further promises, and further bureaucracy. The education system follows the logic of socialism, with a subtle tendency to indoctrinate the next generation. The economic system is Keynesian, with no long-term future and no guiding principle other than short-term enjoyment. Here the logic of Late Antiquity, with its emphasis on bread and circuses, finds its Electronic Age variant. The resulting culture presents us with a stupefied general public and a debased politics. Where there is a will to confront present dangers there is no wit. And more often than not there is neither the will nor the wit. When we look at immigration policy, trade and national security (particular pertaining to counterintelligence), the government will not admit that dangers threaten because democracy hasn't the stomach for tough decisions.

Nyquist concludes with these words:
Things are going to get very nasty before they get better. And don't expect a political leader to say anything truthful about the situation until our illusions are thoroughly extinguished.
I will continue to write about our preference for socialism, the hoax of global warming, the debasing of our currency, the mess we call politics, the government's lies about inflation and the coming rise of gold. However, I don't expect to change many minds. The babble of the stupid is just too loud!

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. The Reality
  2. Are Polar Bears At Risk?

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Two More >5.9 Earthquakes For 2006
MAP 6.0 2006/12/27 20:15:40 -5.735 154.440 369.9 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

MAP 5.9 2006/12/26 15:19:46 48.463 154.694 10.0 KURIL ISLANDS

Are Polar Bears At Risk?

This headline caught my eye: U.S. Wants Polar Bears Listed as Threatened By Juliet Eilperin of the Washington Post.

Northern latitudes are warming twice as rapidly as the rest of the globe, according to a 2004 scientific assessment, and by the end of the century annual ocean temperatures in the Arctic may rise an additional 13 degrees Fahrenheit. As a result, researchers predict that summer sea ice, which polar bears use as a platform to hunt for ringed seals, will decline 50 to 100 percent. Just this month, researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research outlined a worst-case scenario in which summer sea ice could disappear by 2040. (emphasis added)
No word about differing opinions except this:
"This proposal is sort of like a scientific hypothesis. You put this out there and say to the world, 'Tell us, is this right or is this wrong?' " the official said, adding that Interior will hold several public hearings about its proposal. "We're projecting what we think will happen in the future, not just what's happening at this moment."
I googled "Are Polar Bears at Risk? And article after article says yes Polar bears are at risk of extinction. Then I happened upon the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA)
a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy research organization, established in 1983. The NCPA's goal is to develop and promote private alternatives to government regulation and control, solving problems by relying on the strength of the competitive, entrepreneurial private sector.
They have a report out entitled Polar Bears on Thin Ice, Not Really!
A new NCPA study by Dr. David Legates, director of the University of Delaware's Center for Climatic Research and state climatologist, examines the claim that global warming threatens to cause polar bear extinction and finds little basis for fear. By and large, the study finds that polar bear populations are in good shape.
I know all you global warming hoaxsters won't believe this but the report says
Legates finds that their claims of an impending, human-induced Arctic meltdown are not supported by the evidence. For example, the Arctic Assessment proclaimed that Arctic air temperature trends provide an early and strong indication that global warming is causing polar ice caps and glaciers to melt. However, current research suggests that coastal stations in Greenland are instead experiencing a cooling trend, and average summer air temperatures at the summit of the Greenland Ice Sheet have decreased at the rate of 4°F per decade since measurements began in 1987.
Sure makes you wonder where everybody gets their funding.

My grandaddy always said when everybody is going one way go the other. Buy when they are sellin' and sell when they are buyin'. You'll have less problem of getting trampled when they do a 180!

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. The Reality
  2. Are Polar Bears At Risk?
The SEC and Amendments to Reg SHO
Back in August of 2005, I posted about "fails to deliver" in The Problem of "fails to deliver".

If you were to short a stock, generally your broker must be able to borrow the stock before you can short it. Some brokers allow clients to short stock without finding shares to borrow. That is a naked short. The rules state that shares must be "settled" (delivered) in three days. There has been a massive problem, amounting to about 1.5% of daily trading or $6 Billion daily, of "fails" (failure to deliver), so the SEC stepped in with Regulation SHO. Naked shorts were such a massive problem that Regulation SHO included a "grandfather clause" to fix the FTD problem.

"The SEC, wanting to avoid short-squeezes in dozens of stocks caused by the closing out of naked short positions, opted to 'grandfather in' any failed deliveries before Jan. 3. of 2005.
Many have criticized the "grandfather" rule so the SEC proposed a rule change eliminating the clause. On July 14, 2006 the SEC proposed an amendment to Regulation SHO and directed comments must be received by September 19, 2006. Recall that FTDs that were grandfathered still represent almost half of all fails.

Wall Street doesn't want to see any changes says a Forbes article:

The Securities Industry Association (SIA), Wall Street's lobbying group, told the SEC in a 17-page comment letter that the agency should take care not to institute changes that would increase market volatility, constrain stock and options market makers' ability to trade, and mandate disclosure of market data that could be misinterpreted.
If the grandfather rule is eliminated, those FTDs would have to be eliminated and some stocks will rise substantially.

As of December 27th, 2006, no amendment has been passed to eliminate the grandfather clause.

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Tidal Forces and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
From a press release of the British Antarctic Survey
New research into the way the Antarctic ice sheet adds ice to the ocean reveals that tidal motion influences the flow of the one of the biggest ice streams draining the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

[...]

And what influences the tidal motion? Why the variations in flow ... are related to the vertical motion of the ocean caused by the gravitational effects of the sun and moon.

So much for human caused alleged warming of the temperatures in the antarctic!

Photos of the "Hot Spot"
I received this email from Jim and Tom George:
We hiked to the hotspot (in the Dick Smith Wilderness in the Los Padres) on 12/24. Here are a few photos of it.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/21048724@N00/sets/72157594440572509/

I should probably write the geologists and ask for an update since I have not seen any new information out of them for a year. Certainly the samples and gasses were analyzed by now and they have some more ideas.


Near the top of the slide in the Los Padres National Forest where the "mysterious" hot spots have occurred.
Two Major Sevens!
MAP 7.0 2006/12/26 12:34:14 22.023 120.539 10.0 TAIWAN

MAP 7.1 2006/12/26 12:26:22 21.818 120.534 10.0 TAIWAN REGION

The quake hit on the second anniversary of a massive earthquake off Indonesia that triggered a powerful tsunami in the Indian Ocean which killed 230,000 people in a dozen countries.

The quake was felt throughout Taiwan. It swayed buildings and knocked objects off the shelves in the capital, Taipei, in the northern part of the island.

Monday, December 25, 2006

Merry Christmas

For me this was the best Christmas ever. We spent the holiday with children, grand children, my Mom, Dad and his wife Louella, my wife's parents and brothers and sister and all their children and Ralph the dog. I missed my sister who is in Seattle, but will be here to celebrate our birthdays. Bev and I opened presents on Christmas Eve and I gave her a Christmas card that contained my pledge to take ballroom dancing lessons with her. Since life is a wonderful dance, I realized that my loving wife and I didn't dance enough.

Sunday, December 24, 2006

Two Oregon Quakes
MAP 2.6 2006/12/24 23:39:30 44.911 -122.628 19.9 13 km ( 8 mi) N of Mehama, OR

MAP 1.2 2006/12/22 22:09:16 43.756 -120.801 0.0 52 km ( 32 mi) ESE of Deschutes River Woods, OR

Saturday, December 23, 2006

UN Votes Sanctions!
From the BBC,

The United Nations Security Council

has unanimously voted to impose sanctions against Iran over its failure to halt uranium enrichment.

The sanctions ban the supply of nuclear-related technology and materials and impose an asset freeze on key individuals and companies.

Surprise, surprise. I didn't think Russia or China would vote for sanctions. It must mean that these sanctions don't have teeth if Iran doesn't comply!

Oil Standard To A Gold Standard???
Interesting reading this morning. First, Michael Kosares of Centennial Precious Metals, Denver writing for USAGold.com analyses the recent trip to China by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Kosares says,
If China is going to more or less allow its currency to decline in purchasing power in concert with the U.S. dollar (which seems to be the final outcome of the meeting), the other major trading nations will take their cue from this policy and force their currencies to depreciate as well. Essentially, they have no choice.
This week we saw Thailand react to its currency, the Baht, rising 16% against the USD by restricting inflows of hot money causing all sorts of turmoil in the Thailand stock and bond markets. Kosares goes on,
The net effect of these policies will be international inflation and in some places, most notably the United States, double-digit inflation — at least in the beginning.
Kosares refers to the James K. Galbraith piece Paulson and Bernanke were clueless in China. Galbraith says Paulson and Bernanke had the following goals:

1) China's currency strategy has helped produce rapid growth for 30 years; therefore it should be abandoned.

2) China's high savings rates have been a key to this success; therefore they should be reduced.

3) China, a country emerging from communism, should spend more on public health and social security, so that ordinary Chinese can save less.

4) The United States, a capitalist country, should spend less on social security and public health, so that ordinary Americans will be forced to save more.

5) Somehow, all this will reduce the deficit in the US-China balance of trade, a goal whose importance everyone agrees on but that no one can actually explain.

Are we trying to export to China our failed policies?

Second, I noticed in the Galbraith article a link to http://www.cambridgeconferences.com/ch_jan2007.html and found myself at the 2007 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference site and the list of speakers. Glancing down the list I saw that James Turk, Founder & Chairman, of GoldMoney.com was a speaker and clicked on his link and saw a link to his 2004 book “The Coming Collapse of the Dollar” . At that site I saw Mish Shedlock had written an article on 12/21 Monetary shock therapy and 12/19 November PPI, CPI. The 12/21 article gives a great synopsis of the Thailand situation along with a possible crisis between Scotland and England.

Third, the 12/19 article opened my eyes. Mish analyses the CPI and PPI and has some interesting charts. This weekly chart of Oil looks weak:

As does this chart of Copper and Lumber.

I asked the other day, in PPI up 2%, if November PPI is up 2%, why were 10-year treasuries unaffected? By the looks of the yield curve, Oil, Copper and Lumber, the econony looks weak. Gold on the other hand does not look weak and shouldn't with competitive devaluations of currencies looming. We have been on an "Oil Standard" for some time. Are we now going to be on a Gold Standard? After all, if the USD drops in half, Gold would double! (See Gold chart)

Update:

Friday, December 22, 2006

6.1!
MAP 6.1 2006/12/22 19:50:48 10.681 92.390 45.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
That we are here, is frightening!
"Give me control of a nation's money supply, and I care not who makes its laws."

The Federal Reserve is a private cartel of banks run for the benefit of the banks, yet thought of in this country as a governmental organization. After all, the President nominates the Chairman of the FED and Congress must vote for his approval and Congress is required to perform congressional oversight. However, it is still a private bank answerable to no one.

Now, H.R.5818 was introduced in 2006, by Representative Jim Kolbe from Arizona, to transfer the United States Mint and Bureau of Engraving and Printing to the FED.

These are the two government institutions that are responsible for creating and printing the actual money. The U.S. Mint makes all coinage for this country and the Bureau of Engraving and Printing prints Federal Reserve Notes, U.S. passports, Treasury securities and other security documents. With these two institutions under the direct operational control of the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve has even greater control over the entire U.S. monetary system.

Article I, Section 8, of the Constitution enumerates the various powers of the Congress.

Among these is the power to "coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures."
By creating the FED in 1913, Congress passed an unconstutional law and will further compound the egregious error by transfering the United States Mint and Bureau of Engraving and Printing from the U.S. Treasury to the FED.

For further information watch America: Freedom to Fascism by Aaron Russo


Update:

Thursday, December 21, 2006

BYU 38, Oregon 8!
My oh my. What has happened to Oregon? Is the school so concerned with fashion that they've forgotten how to play smash mouth football? Belotti sounded almost arogant in the morning paper, as if BYU shouldn't be on the field with the likes of Oregon. Sorry, son-in-law. If you want to root for Oregon, tune into Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. Good ol' Orange and Black.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Another Molalla Quake
MAP 1.5 2006/12/20 11:06:04 45.154 -122.586 20.5 1 km ( 0 mi) NW of Molalla, OR

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Oregon Quake
MAP 2.8 2006/12/19 03:02:30 45.172 -122.612 19.1 4 km ( 2 mi) NW of Molalla, OR
Xibalba Or The Galactic Center
Back on Sept. 12th I posted about "The Road to Xibalbá"
There is a dark bifurcation or dark rift in the Milky Way caused by interstellar dust clouds. To observers on earth, it appears as a dark road. The Maya today are quite aware of this feature; the Quich» Maya call it xibalba (the "road to Xibalba")
The Mayans believe when a planet, the sun, or the moon crossed the exact center of the rift entrance to the underworld road was possible. It so happens that the Mayans 2300 years ago calculated our sun will be in the exact center of the rift on December 12th, 2012.
I bring this up because I came across the blog Pa`ve's Peculiar Pabulum and the post "Death’s Crossing at the Galactic Center", Pa've posts:
We are on the verge of an 11,500 year cycle. The cause of this cycle is the crossing of our solar system across the galactic center. It works like this. The solar system orbits the galaxy. As it orbits, it periodically crosses up and down over the galactic center. The gravity of the galaxy can be thought of as having greater and lesser density depending on the relationship of the solar system to its relative elevation with the galactic center. As the galaxy is disc shaped, the lines of gravitational pull are strongest at the center edge of the disc, the point we are now crossing.
Pa've has this illustration that describes this 11,500 year cycle.

He believes there is a greater gravitational pull in the center of the Milky Way and we should be seeing more earthquakes. I said that I was not seeing any evidence of a larger number of earthquakes. Recall, from a post of mine "There Are NOT More Earthquakes!"

Here's what I found. There are many more 5.9s or greater than I thought, an average of 200 or more more year, but no big increase. In fact in 1995 there were 260, 222 in 1996, 219 in 1998 and 216 in 2005! So far in 2006 through November 30th, the earth has experienced 183.
Pa've told me I will see more earthquakes in the 4.0 to 5.0 magnitude. I did a search of NEIC and indeed there are more earthquakes:

1976: Peak 2,925 quakes in the 4.0 to 5.0 range
1980: Peak 3,595
1986: Peak 4,913
1992: Peak 5,494
1996: Peak 9,140
2002: Peak 8,778

2003: 8,646
2004: 11,044
2005: Peak 14,191
2006 through Dec. 17th: 11,955

I asked Pa've when do we reach the center of the galaxy. He emailed me that the date is Dec., 2012. The Mayans believe we enter "The Road to Xibalbá" on Dec. 12, 2012. The last peak in earthquake activity was 2005 at 14,191 and peaks seem to fall every four to six years. That puts the next peak in the 2009 to 2011 time frame. Very, very interesting!

PPI Up 2.0%!
Something sure is fishy!
US inflation made a surprise comeback in November with a surprising 2.0 percent rise in wholesale prices, the biggest monthly jump in 30 years.
Analysts were expecting a 0.5 increase, so +2.0 is a shocker, however 10-year bond yields are unchanged at 4.58%. Investors must think the PPI jump is a fluke and that inflation is benign.

Puts the FED in a box. Housing is crumbling and needs lower interest rates to revive, yet inflation may be stirring. 'Course if you've been reading these posts for some length of time you already know that I think inflation has been understated for a long time. I believe we are running closer to 6-10% inflation per year based on the money supply numbers. Some analysts conclude that M3 is growing at a 10%+ rate right now!

Gold is up $6.10 and the USD is lower.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Guard the Borders Blogburst
By Nancy Matthis at American Daughter

Today's Blogburst is also available as a Podcast.

The Price of Lettuce

Federal subsidies do not reduce the COST of food to the taxpayer. They increase it. Likewise, illegal immigration does not reduce the cost of food, or of any other goods and services, to the taxpayer. Illegal immigration also increases those costs.

In fact, illegal immigration increases the citizen's financial burden in exactly the same ways and using the same types of governmental mechanisms as the inefficient and ill-conceived government subsidy programs. Let's just look at the numbers. The available data points come from different years, so our results will not be specific for any single year, but will be representative of the general problem.

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. What NBC’s Tom Brokaw Didn't Report
  2. Guard the Borders Blogburst

Sunday, December 17, 2006

Keb' Mo' Sings It True!
What am I listening to over and over and over this evening? Keb' Mo' singing "The Itch" from his CD Suitcase:
Heavenly Father up above have mercy on me.
After seven years of bad, bad love
I finally got free.

I don't mean to seem ungrateful, you answered my prayer
And Father if you are able
Don't let me do the same damn thing all over again.

You get the fever, you get the itch
You forget about the mess you are in.
You forget about the money, the lawyers and the pain
And do the same thing same damn thing all over again.

All Mighty Father, Great and Good
You need to be in my shoes
You let me fall in love Just like before
Now I'm stepping in a big pile of blues.

Well now the honeymoon is over
Let's not pretend
Guess I'll never learn my lesson
I did the same damn thing all over all again

You get the fever, you get the itch
You forget about the mess you are in.
You forget about the money, the lawyers and the pain
And do the same thing same damn thing all over again.

Mother Mary, Father Joe
I need to talk to your son
He had troubles just like mine
But He's the chosen one.

So if I ever go to heaven
Will that be the end?
Or will I fall for some sweet little angel
and do the same damn thing all over again?

You get the fever, you get the itch
You forget about the mess you are in.
You forget about the money, the lawyers and the pain
And do the same thing same damn thing all over again.

Seems the song applies not only to life with a woman, but wars and our elected officials and history. We do the same damn thing all over again.

Saturday, December 16, 2006

The Hottest Car In The World!
I have heard of Bugatti, but until I stumbled upon their web site, I had no idea how many cars on the road have borrowed from this car company. Here's the Bugatti Veyron:

* A W-16 engine that can produce 1,001 horsepower
* A top speed of 250+ mph (400+ kph)
* A zero-to-60 time of three seconds
* A zero-to-180 time of 14 seconds
* A price tag somewhere in the $1.2 million range.

Just once, I would like to ride this beauty to 250 MPH!

Update:

American Idol Women
I was going through some songs that I had saved on iTunes and came across two versions of "Since I Fell For You", one by Michael Bolton and the other by Barbara Streisand and I missed the best one, the Katherine McPhee version recorded back on February 22nd. So here is the YouTube recording.

BTW, I visited ricky.org who had posted this recording originally and happened to see another Americam Idol contestant and winner, Carrie Underwood:

Isn't it absolutely amazing what a few crayons and some silly putty will do! Carrie has really grown up. Speaking of growing up, Jennifer Hudson

is wowing them in Dreamgirls.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Al Jazeera Carries Story That US MSM Doesn't Carry
Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer of Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. (GATA) just sent out an email advising us of a program on Al Jazeera:
Al Jazeera's English-language service, which was started a few months ago to bring to the West a long-neglected Middle Eastern perspective on the news, has just broadcast a rollicking 10-minute analysis about gold and the dollar. It is called "Death of the Dollar" and is part of Al Jazeera's "People and Power" investigative program. Among other things, the segment:

-- Examines the gold price suppression scheme of the Western central banks.

-- Interviews GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and GATA consultant James Turk, founder of GoldMoney and editor of the Freemarket Gold & Money Report.

-- And cites the report vindicating GATA by the Cheuvreux brokerage house of the French bank Credit Agricole, the rigging of the U.S. Consumer Price Index, and the Federal Reserve's discontinuation of the M3 money supply figures to conceal the explosion of the U.S. money supply.

The segment is introduced by Shereen El Feki, host of "People and Power," and is written and narrated by Max Kaiser, formerly a broker on Wall Street and now, it seems, a talented international troublemaker.

We haven't been able to locate a direct link for the program at Al Jazeera's Internet site but the program has been copied at YouTube here:

The video reproduction at YouTube isn't great but the audio is fine and you won't miss anything even as you may want to watch the program two or three times out of amazement. It's the sort of TV news analysis you'd expect to see in a free country -- or one whose news media weren't dominated by financial interests.

Media technology is liberating the developing world. Thanks to ROB-TV and Al Jazeera, it just might help liberate the developed world as well.

It seems appropriate that Americans know this story with our Treasury officials meeting this week in China. China holds almost a Trillion of our U.S. dollars.

Trade Deficit Registers First Decline
The trade deficit dropped 11.6% from a year ago October, and that is the first drop from last year.


Courtesy of the U.S. Dept of Commerce
Jan.- Oct., 2005 -588,555
January-56,637
February-57,523
March-53,948
April-57,010
May-56,630
June-58,419
July-58,080
August-58,742

Sept.-64,968

Oct.-66,598

Jan.- Oct., 2006-643,440
January (R)-66,301
February (R)-62,743
March (R)-62,096
April (R)-63,590
May (R)-65,407
June (R)-64,818
July-68,044
August-69,857

Sept.-64,259

Oct.-58,868

As you can see from the table (above), the 10 months of 2006 are up 9.3% over the first 10 months of 2005.

6.2 Magnitude Earthquake
MAP 6.2 2006/12/12 15:48:03 3.717 124.719 211.5 An earthquake with magnitude 6.2 occurred near Manado, Sulawesi, Indonesia.

Monday, December 11, 2006

Oregon Earthquakes
MAP 1.8 2006/12/11 09:04:42 45.119 -120.952 13.3 12 km ( 7 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

MAP 1.8 2006/12/08 04:13:45 45.120 -120.932 11.0 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

The Obama hype
JackLewis.net has some interesting observations about the Obama hype:
So when the Media and Liberals (sorry, redundant) treated Dan Quayle as totally inexperienced for the office of Vice-President, because he had only served two terms in the House of Representatives and was two years into his second term in the Senate, why then are they hyping Barack Obama as a candidate for President?

Quayle, by the way, defeated an 8 term incumbent for his House seat and a three-term incumbent for his Senate seat. His re-election to his house seat was by the largest margin ever in that district. His re-election to the Senate was by the widest margin by any state wide candidate, ever in that state.

Barack Obama, who was only elected to the Senate two years ago, after one and part of another term in the Illinois State Senate (woooo, I'm like sooo impressed), won his Senate seat, only after both his major primary opponent and Republican opponent were muddied by sudden, unverified allegations of domestic abuse. The general election was then between Obama and Alan Keyes, who'd been rushed in from out of state to run against him, apparently because few politicians in the state wanted to also be accused of spousal abuse.

Maybe, the media is hyping Obama because they would prefer anyone, but Hillary!

Guard the Borders Blogburst
Going By The Numbers by Nancy Matthis

Understanding the impact of illegal immigration does not depend on accepting partisan opinions. It is just the result of doing some simple math.

In a previous article, Illegals Deadlier Than War On Terror, we compared the numbers of United States citizens killed by illegal aliens to the tally of our troops killed in the war on terror. In response to that article, one of our readers wrote asking whether we had seen the video produced by NumbersUSA titled Immigration by the Numbers. He asked, “I wonder how accurate it is?”

This widely distributed video uses gumballs in a jar to visually demonstrate the impact of numbers that increase exponentially rather than linearly. These are mathematical concepts that are immediately meaningful to folk with a technical background, but may be harder to understand for others. The answer to our reader’s question is that the video IS accurate. It is not based on partisan opinion. It is just a very graphic illustration of an algebraic equation.

You can view a clip from the video here. Roy Beck of NumbersUSA is not depending on any esoteric data. He’s just doing the math, based on the US Census numbers, which actually grossly UNDERESTIMATE the number of illegals in the United States.

_____________________________________

The gumball video is just a reprise of that old high school science experiment in which you have a population of fruit flies — Drosophila — that doubles with every generation. (The reason they used fruit flies is that drosophila require only a week to ten days to reproduce, and you can easily get the experiment done during a thirteen week class term.)

You fill the jar 1/8 full with fruit flies. It looks like there is a lot of room left. Next thing you know, the jar is 1/4 full. Then 1/2 full. But not to worry, because there is still half of the whole jar available for them to fly around in. And then — WHOOPS — the jar is jammed full, and they begin to die.

However, in the video, Roy Beck uses gumballs instead of fruit flies.

_____________________________________

For a population to grow in numbers, more children must be born than the number that are needed to replace the older folk who are dying. If every man and woman pair off monogamously, and we don’t allow for a slight variation due to women who die before childbearing years, simple replacement requires that every woman have two children (one to replace herself and one to replace her man). If every woman had four children during her childbearing years, the population would double every generation like the fruit flies, sans devastating war, terrible famine and pandemic lethal disease like the black plague.

Mexican immigrant women (legal and illegal) living in the United States have a fertility rate of 3.51 according to the 2002 US census. So their population will not quite double, but it certainly will increase at a very rapid rate. And whereas the educated American population may defer marriage and childbearing until they are adequately prepared to raise a family, the immigrants will produce “anchor babies” as soon as biologically possible, no later than age 18, because we as taxpayers will support them. So our “jar,” the continental United States, will fill up pretty rapidly.

But mathematically it gets worse, much worse. The parents do not die when the kids are born as the fruit flies do. So now within four years, the 2 parents and their 3.51 kids are all living here. Illegals are coming at the rate of about one million per year from Mexico, according to the latest estimates by border patrol agents. So within four years, each annual increment will have become 2,755,000 mouths to feed — the original million plus the 1,755,000 children that the 500,000 women in the increment will have produced.

500,000 x 3.51 = 1,755,000 children per annual increment

1,000,000 original illegals + 1,755,000 anchor babies = 2,755,000 new faces

In less than eleven years, that’s 10% of our current population. And please note, this analysis only includes parents who are ILLEGALS. It does not include anchor babies born to parents who are here legally on work visas, and produce offspring for the sole purpose of staying. It also does not include the huge jump in numbers that will occur eighteen years out, when the children of the illegals start reproducing.

What makes these considerations most galling, however, is the fact that this high birth rate of 3.51 for Mexican women living illegally in the US is evoked by the deep pockets of the American taxpayers. It only occurs in the benevolent social welfare context of the United States. Mexican women living in Mexico have a birth rate of 2.4 children.


This has been a production of the Guard the Borders Blogburst. It was started by Euphoric Reality, and serves to keep immigration issues in the forefront of our minds as we're going about our daily lives and continuing to fight the war on terror. If you are concerned with the trend of illegal immigration facing our country, join our Blogburst! Just send an email with your blog name and url to admin at guardtheborders dot com.

America's Fatal Weakness
From the Canadian FreePress, America's Fatal Weakness By J.B. Williams, I couldn't express it any better.

Sunday, December 10, 2006

Mt Tabor
Truffles, turtles & tunes has a very nice post, written by a New Yorker, about Mt Tabor, a cinder cone volcano. We may be the only city in the U.S. with an extinct volcano in our city limits.
Mt. Tabor is part of the Boring Lava Field, an extinct Plio-Pleistocene volcanic zone containing at least 32 cinder cone and small shield volcanoes lying within a radius of 13 miles. The zone became active 2.7 million years ago and has been extinct for about 300,000 years.
Cow 'emissions' more damaging to planet than CO2 from cars
So says a new report.
The livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global. The findings of this report suggest that it should be a major policy focus when dealing with problems of land degradation, climate change and air pollution, water shortage and water pollution and loss of biodiversity.
Livestock are responsible for 18 per cent of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming, more than cars, planes and all other forms of transport put together.

Dog gone it. I just saw An Inconvenient Truth and Al Gore had me convinced it was the auto that was most responsible for the rise in CO2. He didn't mention cows!

Saturday, December 9, 2006

Withdraw to Victory?
Withdraw to Victory? by Patrick J. Buchanan
"The situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating," declares the Iraq Study Group in the lead sentence of its long-awaited report.

It continues on in this grim vein:

"A slide toward chaos could trigger the collapse of Iraq's government and a humanitarian disaster. ... There is no guarantee for success in Iraq. The situation in Baghdad and several provinces is dire. ... Pessimism is pervasive. ... Violence is increasing in scope, complexity and lethality."

This is the portrait of a nation descending into hell.

Yet the brutal honesty of the Baker-Hamilton commission about the situation in Iraq is accompanied by recommendations that are almost utopian in their unreality.

For, after painting its grim portrait, the commission says that if we faithfully follow its recommendations, "terrorism will be dealt a blow, stability will be enhanced in an important part of the world, and America's credibility, interests and values will be protected."

What is its principal recommendation? That the United States begin to pull all its forces out of combat and out of Iraq by early 2008, and turn the war over to the Iraqi army and police.

But if 150,000 U.S. Marines and Army troops have failed in four years to defeat al-Qaida, the Sunni insurgency, the Mahdi Army, the sectarian militias and the criminal elements of Iraq, how is the Iraqi army going to succeed?

Are we to believe that rag-tag army is going to win a war the finest army on earth has all but lost?

Is this what they call "realism"?

The report itself describes the Iraqi army, after years of U.S. training, as having made "fitful progress toward becoming a reliable and disciplined fighting force loyal to the national government."

"Units lack leadership. ... Units lack equipment. ... Units lack personnel. ... Units lack logistics and support."

Is this the force U.S. advisers are going to convert in a year into an army of salvation?

Well, not entirely. They will be assisted by the Iraqi police, of whom the report writes: "The state of the Iraqi police is substantially worse than that of the Iraqi army. ...

"Iraqi police cannot control crime, and they routinely engage in sectarian violence, including the unnecessary detention, torture and targeted execution of Sunni Arab civilians. The police are organized under the Ministry of the Interior, which is confronted by corruption and militia infiltration and lacks control over police in the provinces."

These are the folks who are going to win the war we could not win, after we depart? Is this not an insult to common sense?

And if the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki fails to "make substantial progress toward the achievement of milestones on national reconciliation, security and governance," declares the commission, "the United States should reduce its political, military or economic support for the Iraqi government."

But if we pull the rug out from under Maliki, and his regime and army collapse, who moves into the vacuum? Would it not likely be Moqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army of 60,000 fighters, a force far superior to the Mahdi units that U.S forces eviscerated in Najaf?

If America pulls its combat brigades out of Iraq, who will protect the U.S. support troops, civilian contractors, aid workers and diplomats in the Green Zone? Would we not be risking an American Dien Bien Phu?

And what is to prevent disloyal Iraqi army units and sectarian allies from fragging U.S. advisers embedded to train them, after U.S. fighting brigades have gone home?

Throughout the report there appear inherent contradictions.

The situation is "grave and deteriorating" but will get better if we pull our finest fighting forces out. Iraq is "vital to regional and even global stability, and is critical to U.S. interests," but if Maliki malingers, we should pull the rug out from under him. An Iraqi army trained by Americans can win a war that Americans could not.

The Baker-Hamilton commission has told us in brutal frankness that the patient is dying, for which we are grateful. But the commission is, in its own way, as much in denial as George W. Bush. For the surgery it recommends for Iraq looks more like a mercy killing than a miracle cure.

It is a time for truth. The strategic retreat recommended by Baker-Hamilton is not going to win this war, or end it well for the United States -- it is going to advance the timetable of our impending defeat.

When U.S. combat forces leave, Iraq is going to be lost to those who ran us out. Our friends there are going to endure what our abandoned friends in Vietnam and Cambodia endured. The forces of Islamic radicalism will be emboldened to take down our remaining allies in the Middle East. Our days as a superpower will be over.

For it is the definition of a superpower that once it commits itself to a war, it does not lose the war.

Mr. Buchanan makes more sense than anything I've read on the subject so far!

Sen. Gordon Smith Speaks Out
I have watched the video of Sen. Gordon Smith's speech on the Senate floor and read the transcript and was struck by his emotion. He is at an end of his support for the way this war is being conducted. He doesn't know if "cut and run" or "cut and walk" is the best way to end our involvement or if we should do now what we should have done, "cleared an area, held it and built it up" to get the support of Iraqis. "Clear, Hold and Build" would only be possible if we had more troops there. Then he says:
What will continue to guide the way I vote is simply this: I do not believe we can retreat from the greater war on terror. Iraq is a battlefield in that larger war. But I do believe we need a presence there on the near horizon at least that allows us to provide intelligence, interdiction, logistics, but mostly a presence to say to the murderers that come across the border: We are here, and we will deal with you. But we have no business being a policeman in someone else's civil war.
He doesn't say it, but "cut and run" or "cut and walk" has consequences. How do we maintain any credibility with Syria, Iran or Korea if we retreat from the battlefield? How do you pressure Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions if the U.S. is believed to be powerless? Sen. Smith seems conflicted in that he says we still need a presence there to halt the inflow of murderers. How can we have any credibility that we will "deal" with the murderers?

Sen. Smith quotes Winston Churchill:

After the First World War, let us learn our lessons. Never, never believe that any war will be smooth and easy or that anyone who embarks on this strange voyage can measure the tides and the hurricanes. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.
But Sen. Smith quickly forgets that lesson. It seems to me he should have told all of us that there will be "unforeseeable and uncontrollable events" that will try our resolve and we must guard against those moments.

This is war and it will not be won easily. I think all of us forget that this is war and in war you do not keep some of your swords in their scabbards. That is what is absurd or criminal. We squander our men and treasury by fighting this war, signed onto by politicians, with one arm tied behind our backs.

We want a surgical war. A war with no collateral damage, yet we make sure our boys are handicapped by the "rules of engagement". Sen. Smith speaks of lessons. Didn't we learn anything from Vietnam?

"Tsunami" On Our Sun
Here's a fascinating movie of what scientists are calling a "Tsunami" on the surface of our sun.


Click on the image

Truly incredible!

Hat Tip to Mabie E. at QJ.net

From NPR, Siegel and Haas
From NPR News, All Things Considered hosted by Robert Siegel comes an interview with Richard Haas, who is president of the Council on Foreign Relations regarding the Iraq Study Group's report. Siegel asks what is the connection between talks with Syria and Iran and a Israel/Palestine solution? Haas answers in part:
So one could imagine some sort of a grand bargain with Syria where it would make peace with Israel. In exchange, it would get the Golan Heights. But what Israel would get, in addition to peace with its neighbor, is it would get a Syria that was no longer supporting Hezbollah or harboring Hamas, and that there may again be some sort of a package that would help the situation in Iraq and also bring peace between Israel and Syria. So there's that possibility.
Can you believe that there are diplomats that believe this trash? Have they not learned yet that appeasement or "Land for Peace" is not a solution? If I recall Syria attacked Israel and the price for that act of war was a loss AND the loss of the Golan Heights. Why should Israel give that strategic spot up for some promise of non support for Hezbollah or Hamas. Syria is already resupplying Hezbollah with weapons to replace those it lost in Lebanon. Since when do we negotiate with terrorists and reward aggressors?

Haas, who is president of the Council on Foreign Relations, further states

...since quite honestly, we can't do much about the situation inside Iraq itself.
He is assuming we are defeated, that Iraq is lost, so we must negotiate! No one asks why Syria or Iran would deal with us. They know we will pull out and they will have had to give up nothing and we continue to back away from Israel, fighting for its survival, our only friend in the Middle East.

This whole thing makes me sick!

Friday, December 8, 2006

"Skeptic's Guide" to Global Warming
Washington D.C. - Senator James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the outgoing Chairman of Environment & Public Works Committee, is pleased to announce the public release of the Senate Committee published booklet entitled “A Skeptic’s Guide to Debunking Global Warming Alarmism. Hot & Cold Media Spin Cycle: A Challenge To Journalists who Cover Global Warming.”

Click here to download the "Skeptic's Guide"

The color glossy 64 page booklet -- previously was only available in hardcopy to the media and policy makers -- includes speeches, graphs, press releases and scientific articles refuting catastrophe climate fears presented by the media, the United Nations, Hollywood and former Vice President turned-foreign-lobbyist Al Gore.

The “Skeptic’s Guide” includes a copy of Senator Inhofe’s 50 minute Senate floor speech delivered on September 25, 2006 challenging the media to improve its reporting.

The ‘Skeptic’s Guide’, which has received recognition by the LA Times and Congressional Quarterly, is now available free for international distribution on the Senate Environmental & Public Works Web site

The book, which features web links to all supporting documentation, also serves as a handbook to identify the major players in media bias when it comes to poor climate science reporting. The guide presents a reporter’s virtual who’s-who’s of embarrassing and one-sided media coverage, with a focus on such reporters as CBS News “60 Minutes” Scott Pelley, ABC News reporter Bill Blakemore, CNN’s Miles O’Brien, and former NBC Newsman Tom Brokaw.


Language Arts Quiz
Your Language Arts Grade: 100%

Way to go! You know not to trust the MS Grammar Check and you know "no" from "know." Now, go forth and spread the good word (or at least, the proper use of apostrophes).

Are You Gooder at Grammar?
Make a Quiz

Hat Tip to Teapot Tantrums.

Thursday, December 7, 2006

Tropical Storm Utor
From USA Today,
A new tropical storm approaching the Philippines is on track to become the second typhoon in 10 days to batter the archipelago, as the country struggles to recover from mudslides that left more than 1,000 people dead or missing, forecasters said Thursday.

[...]

The Philippine weather bureau said the storm was packing sustained winds of 40 mph on Thursday and moving west at 9 mph. The system is forecast to intensify into a typhoon...

Ownit Has Lost It!
In case you missed it:
Ownit Mortgage Solutions, a California company that describes itself as one of the top 15 lenders to homeowners with weak or no credit histories, has closed.

[...]

Ownit ran out of cash needed to repurchase loans that it had sold in the secondary market because the original borrowers had defaulted, people in the mortgage industry said. Investment and commercial banks often buy mortgages from originators and securitize them, but have the right to make the original lender repurchase loans that go bad.

Others commenting:

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
The Wall Street Examiner
Of Mountains and Molehills
The Mortgage Insider's Blog
Winter (Economic & Market) Watch

Update:

A 6.3 Earthquake!
MAP 6.3 2006/12/07 19:10:22 46.273 154.346 10.4 EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS
The Iraq Study Group's Report
The Oregonian calls the Iraq Study Group's report a "sensible report". President Bush must initiate "a comprehensive approach that draws in Iraq's neighbors".
...each day America's earlier goals for Iraq recede. The goals that remain achievable are smaller
This is billed as a bipartisan report designed to achieve an American consensus for solving the Iraq problem. The National Review Online (NRO) calls the report "Half Baked". So much for consensus. NRO says of the diplomatic approach
the report acknowledges that Iran would probably rebuff an American diplomatic outreach.
Where's the incentive to talk. They don't fear the U.S.. They know we'll be gone soon and they can have their way.

The report says "Iran should stem the flood of arms and training to Iraq," and “Syria should control its border with Iraq to stem the flood of funding, insurgents and terrorist in and out of Iraq" (emphasis added). Why would those two countries do that. What they are doing is working for them. It's causing the U.S. to think of leaving.

The report's definition of success is

an Iraq with a broadly representative government that maintains its territorial integrity, is at peace with its neighbors, denies terrorism a sanctuary, and doesn’t brutalize its own people.
What are the smaller goals in Iraq about which The Oregonian writes?

Lastly the report gives all sort of wiggle room to withdrawal, lots of ifs and buts, and even allows for higher troop levels in the near term.

The war in Iraq has always been about getting rid of Saddam, ridding Iraq of WMDs which were shipped out before we arrived, freeing the Iraqi people and taking the fight to Iran and Syria. Somehow we allowed the politicians to fight the war and look how they screwed it up.

And here's your answer from President Bush and Blair about talks with Iran and Syria:

Countries that participate in talks must not fund terrorism, must help the young democracy survive, must help with the economics of the country," Bush said. "If people are not committed, if Syria and Iran is not committed to that concept, then they shouldn't bother to show up.
A Special Christmas Letter
Jack Bog's Blog carries a letter from Jesus that Jack says has been circulating on the net. First I've seen of it. In the letter Jesus gives us 10 suggestions for holiday actions. Number six hit home for me.

6. Did you know that someone in your town will attempt to take their own life this season because they feel so alone and hopeless? Since you don't know who that person is, try giving everyone you meet a warm smile. It could make the difference. Also, you might consider supporting the local hotline. They talk with people like that every day.
We know that flipping someone off on the freeway can bring on "road rage". I never thought about the rippling effect of an act of love in quite this way.

Wednesday, December 6, 2006

Willamette Week Nails PGE and S&P
Utilities are allowed a certain return on equity by the Public Utilty Commissions (PUC). The price for their monopoly status: the PUC gets to decide what the utility charges the public. Willamette Week reports
...one of the key pieces of evidence that PGE offered in October to support its request for a rate hike—an increase that would cost its Oregon ratepayers $143 million annually—was an ostensibly independent analysis of PGE's financial condition.

The report by Standard & Poor's, the country's second-largest credit-rating agency, says that, without a rate increase, PGE's financial position will be in jeopardy. (Emphasis added)

[...]

But documents show that PGE played a highly unusual role in the S&P report. The utility 'redlined' or edited three drafts of the Standard & Poor's report, apparently in an effort to make PGE's financial condition look worse and therefore bolster its rate-hike request.

The idea that PGE would edit a report that is supposed to be independently written is beyond the pale. I can understand the rationale for a research report from an analyst given to management for fact checking prior to publication, but S&P or Moody's are supposed to be independent. That's like me editing my tax return that my accountant will give to my bank for my loan.

This appears to be another black mark on the reputation of PGE and as far as the analyst at S&P, he should be fired.

In 2003, Congress held hearings on the failure of Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service to alert investors to financial problems and subsequent massive bankruptcies at companies such as Enron and WorldCom, both of which were major clients of the ratings agencies.
As an investor, don't depend on rating agencies to warn you of impending problems and don't depend on brokers to recommend selling your shares.

Hat Tip to Jack Bog's Blog

Tuesday, December 5, 2006

Foreclosure in Denver Worst Ever
From 9NEWS.com,
Denver's 2006 real estate foreclosure rate is now officially the worst on record.

With one month left in the year, foreclosures have already eclipsed the record set during the 1988 oil industry collapse which sent Colorado's economy into a tail-spin. (Emphasis added)

I remember that 1988 time well. Home owners were walking away from their homes. Just giving the keys to the bank!

OregonDHS Gets Funding, Is the Problem Fixed?
Back in January, Rep. Dennis Richardson at Oregon Catalyst.com wrote (Oregon Department of Human Services) DHS $172 Million Shortfall Based on Flawed Forecast?
The audit is complete and the DHS shortfall is forecasted to be $172 million. The Oregonian’s December 29, 2005 Editorial stated, “No one, not even agency director Bruce Goldberg, seems able to fully explain how DHS could fall so far into the red only 150 days into a new budget.
Richardson goes on to quote from The Oregonian editorial
In conclusion, the Oregonian Editorial, mentioned above, rightly stated, “…the Legislature should not give another dime to the Department of Human Services until it is clear how the agency got into such a mess and legislators are convinced that it is not going to happen again.”
Quietly, here's what happened:
The Legislature's Emergency Board took a final step on Friday (December 1, 2006) toward closing a budget shortfall in the Department of Human Services, allocating $73.4 million from a fund established last spring during a special legislative session.
Last spring the Legislature appropriated $54 million to the department and set aside another $83.3 million for the Emergency Board. Then DHS received praise because the agency needed $9.8 million less than estimated.
Officials said the smaller money gap resulted from a reduced caseload, cost-savings measures and higher revenues, including higher than expected tobacco tax collections that support the Oregon Health Plan.
I'm hearing that the agencies affected by the DHS shortfall were asked to appeal as a group to the emergency board for stop gap funding. Nothing like the appeal of a victim to turn the tide.

Has anything been fixed at DHS and are we sure it won't happen again?