Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Craig said, oh she can sing all right, but have you listened to Eva Cassidy? I admitted I had never heard of her, Craig said she had died at 33 of melanoma, and was one of the best singers he's ever heard. Well, you know, I listened to her on the web and then bought two of her CDs after hearing Somewhere over the Rainbow.
Tonight, someone sent an email to me urging me to listen to a duet of Cassidy and another favorite of mine Katie Melua. So here for your enjoyment is the duet courtesy of YouTube:
What caught my attention was the piece in the article in which several other technologies are included in the topic, Dumber Than Ethanol:
Liquid Coal - not only is the cost of one plant that produces 156,000 barrels of diesel per day, $7 Billion, but it would consume four barrels of water per barrel of diesel.
Tar Sands - about 1 Million barrels of oil per day are produced from tar sands, but recovering that oil consumes 5 barrels of water per barrel.
Oil Shale - a ton of shale is considered rich if squeezing it delivers 30 gallons of oil. It is so costly and polluting that we've spent over $10 Billion and get only .0001 percent of our energy needs from this source.
My emphasis on water is based on an article at Earth Policy Institute warning of water shortages. Consider, We are over pumping our aquifiers in each of the big three grain producers—China, India, and the United States.
The U.S. embassy in Beijing reports that Chinese wheat farmers in some areas are now pumping from a depth of 300 meters, or nearly 1,000 feet. Pumping water from this far down raises pumping costs so high that farmers are often forced to abandon irrigation and return to less productive dryland farming. A World Bank study indicates that China is overpumping three river basins in the north—the Hai, which flows through Beijing and Tianjin; the Yellow; and the Huai, the next river south of the Yellow. Since it takes 1,000 tons of water to produce one ton of grain, the shortfall in the Hai basin of nearly 40 billion tons of water per year (1 ton equals 1 cubic meter) means that when the aquifer is depleted, the grain harvest will drop by 40 million tons—enough to feed 120 million Chinese.And it's happening in Pakistan, Baluchistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Israel, and Mexico.In India, water shortages are particularly serious simply because the margin between actual food consumption and survival is so precarious. In a survey of India’s water situation, Fred Pearce reported in New Scientist that the 21 million wells drilled are lowering water tables in most of the country. In North Gujarat, the water table is falling by 6 meters (20 feet) per year. In Tamil Nadu, a state with more than 62 million people in southern India, wells are going dry almost everywhere and falling water tables have dried up 95 percent of the wells owned by small farmers, reducing the irrigated area in the state by half over the last decade.
[...]
In the United States, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas—three leading grain-producing states—the underground water table has dropped by more than 30 meters (100 feet). As a result, wells have gone dry on thousands of farms in the southern Great Plains. Although this mining of underground water is taking a toll on U.S. grain production, irrigated land accounts for only one fifth of the U.S. grain harvest, compared with close to three fifths of the harvest in India and four fifths in China.
The water shortage and the resulting food shortage may make the energy shortage seem like a zit an elephant's ass.
American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (AHM) warned of troubles in their mortgage portfolio on Friday. It did not trade on Monday. Tuesday it opened at the market close at $1.04 down from $10.47 and down from over $30 in January.
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Bose George said American Home Mortgage will probably go bankrupt, or at least be restructured into something leaving very little value for shareholders."The chances are low," he said of the company's prospects for survival.
[...]
American Home Mortgage specializes in adjustable-rate mortgages, which carry interest rates that reset according to certain benchmark interest rates. This type of debt has hamstrung a lot of borrowers in the past year because interest rates have jumped.
The company also lends to so-called Alt-A borrowers, or borrowers that cannot document their income.

Bill Murphy at LeMetropole Cafe writes that Barclays, UBS, Bear Stearns Cos. and Bank of America Corp. may be on the hook for a total of $9.7 Billion loaned to AHM.
In related news the WSJ reports that Bear Sterns has lost two funds, now has a third fund in trouble with roughly $900 million in mortgage investments.
The NY Times reports that Sowood Capital has shut it's doors. At one time the hedge fund, run by a money manager who hailed from the team that built Harvard’s endowment into the $30 billion giant that it is today, carried positions valued at $12 to $15 Billion.
Yesterday, Sowood sent out a letter to investors indicating that heavy losses in the credit market had caused the fund to lose more than half its value, prompting it to sell its portfolio to another hedge fund and return the remaining $1.5 billion to investors.Meanwhile, the market dropped over 146 points after being up more than 80! OIl closed at a new all time high, above $78 per barrel.
Mortgages American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (AHM) Mover Mike
Related Posts (on one page):
- Another One Bites The Dust
- Prudent Man Rule Violated?

Most days I feel like I'm just writing down thoughts that are whipped away in the daily wind of stimuli. Then out of nowhere appears an editorial in the NY Times written by two liberals that says the surge is working! That editorial is followed by two columns by David Ignatias in the Washington Post. The first acknowledges a simple truth:
While the U.S. diplomat (Ryan Crocker) delivered his stern warning against Iranian meddling in Iraq, (Hassan Kazemi) Qomi, (Iran's ambassador to Baghdad) must have wondered: Why should I listen to this guy? Congress is going to start pulling U.S. troops out soon, no matter what he says. (My emphasis)The second column appears today in the Washington Post. Ignatias relying on the NIE of July 17th asks a very good question:
Al-Qaeda has "regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability" using a new safe haven in the lawless frontier area of northwest Pakistan known as Waziristan.Great question!The question is: What is the United States going to do about it?(My emphasis)
To top it off The Oregonian in an editorial questions Mayor Tom Potter. He wants to set up a covered facility, sort of a union hall, for illegal aliens who now stand on MLK and hire on as day laborers. Potter wants to use tax payer funds to aid and abet law breakers.
Potter hopes to have at least a temporary center open by year's end. That would bring Portland into line with scores of other U.S. cities that have crossed this ridiculous Rubicon. It may be popular, it may be pragmatic, it still isn't good public policy.Whoa Nelly! So many libs seeing it my way. What's next, the LA Times declaring George Bush the most courageous president since FDR?And it still isn't right. (My emphasis)
David Ignatias Mayor Tom Potter Mover Mike
Update:
Daniel's Political Musings has some further thoughts on Mayor Potter's labor site.Related Posts (on one page):
- Libs On The Run???
- David Ignatias Writes On Iraq
Sunday, July 29, 2007
I don't believe Bush is considering this choice. I don't believe he is wavering at all. I believe he is firmly committed to this course, guided by his internal moral compass. He has not forgotten the stakes that are involved and knows fully the consequences if we cut and run. Rodman tells what will happen:
Potentially the most destabilizing new factor in the world in the coming period is the fear of American weakness. All the hyperventilation about American hubris and unilateralism is a tired cliche; it never had much validity anyway. The real problem is that the pressures pushing us to accept defeat in Iraq are already profoundly unnerving to allies in the Middle East, and elsewhere, who rely on the United States to help ensure their security in the face of continuing dangers. If we let ourselves be driven out of Iraq, what the world will seek most from the next president will not be some great demonstration of humility and self-abasement -- that is, to be the "un-Bush" -- but rather for reassurance that the United States is still strong, capable of acting decisively and committed to the security of its friends. Given our domestic debate, to provide this reassurance will be an uphill battle in the best of circumstances. It will be even more difficult if President Bush succumbs to all the pressures on him to do the wrong thing in Iraq.It would be so easy for Bush to wilt like his Dad. Remember "Read My Lips, No New Taxes!" Let us thank God that there is this man who is acting like a grown up. It will be so much harder to ever defend our interests if we turn tail on this one.
Try to imagine what was running through the mind of Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Iran's ambassador to Baghdad, as he sat across the negotiating table from his American counterpart, Ryan Crocker, last week.That's the heart of the problem, as I see the anti-war movement in this country. Both sides voted approval to back up the UN Iraq Resolutions with force. I won't argue with the characterization that the war was mishandled. Bush tried to fight the war on the cheap. However, once committed, once our military starts dying, we owe it to them and our future credibility to fight to win, otherwise any enemy will say, "If we just hold on long enough, America will get tired and leave and we can have our way. If they bleed, they will leave."While the U.S. diplomat delivered his stern warning against Iranian meddling in Iraq, Qomi must have wondered: Why should I listen to this guy? Congress is going to start pulling U.S. troops out soon, no matter what he says. (My emphsis)
The anti-war movement should make the distinction between fighting to keep us out of war and providing "aid and comfort" to the enemy once in. I think it's disgraceful to use our young and then cut and run with nothing to show for it except crosses.
One could argue that we should never go to war, never send troops anywhere in the world...unless we ruthlessly, overwhelmingly enforce our will.
David Ignatias Iraq Mover Mike
Update:
Related Posts (on one page):
- Libs On The Run???
- David Ignatias Writes On Iraq
Saturday, July 28, 2007

Mt. Popocatépetl Volcano Mover Mike
Update:

On a cloud free day in Dubuque, Iowa, large chunks of ice, one of them reportedly about 50 pounds, fell from the sky.
David Travis, a professor of geography and geology and an associate dean at the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, has studied the phenomenon of large chunks of ice falling from a clear sky. He said it's possible the ice could have been a megacryometeor -- "similar to a hailstone, but without the thunderstorm."Megacryometeor Iowa Mover Mike

Maybe, we should issue the Trackstick to tourists as they cross into our wild state.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
MAP 3.9 2007/07/27 02:07:51 44.515 -130.340 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
MAP 4.7 2007/07/27 01:45:27 44.510 -129.691 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
MAP 4.7 2007/07/27 01:37:48 44.388 -129.451 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
# 444 km (276 miles) W (275°) from Yachats, OR
# 446 km (277 miles) W (268°) from Depoe Bay, OR
# 447 km (278 miles) W (270°) from Newport, OR
# 526 km (327 miles) W (278°) from Eugene, OR
# 565 km (351 miles) W (261°) from Portland, OR
Update:
We now in two days have a total of EIGHT quakes offshore Oregon, with this being the latest:MAP 4.9 2007/07/28 00:30:29 44.597 -129.803 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
First, Stratfor. A look back at elections since Truman, shows senators do not win, governors win. It shows Democrats win only with candidates from the south and Republicans win only with a candidate from one of the big states of California or Texas. Both lose when the Democrats choose a candidate from the north or north east. Republicans lose with candidates from the midwest and do not nominate those from the northeast. This time, unless Ron Paul performs a miracle, it looks like it will be a senator from the north or northeast vs a Republican from the northeast. The unpredictablity of the future policies of the candidates help President Bush with our foreign adversaries because he is a known quantity even though he should be a lame duck.
Second, Guiliani. NewsMax says that the G man has hired "Middle East Hawks – including one who urges a U.S. military strike on Iran."
* Norman Podhoretz, former editor-in-chief at Commentary magazine, supports the war and says a military confrontation with Iran is inevitable.When 9-11 happened, I said we are at war. The war has taken a lot of twists and turns, a lot of ebbs and flows, since then, but nothing has changed my initial analysis. The puzzle has been the lack of evidence of that war on the general population here in the US. If Bush attacks Iran in the next 18 months, one candidate looks prepared.* Charles Hill, his chief foreign policy adviser who once served as political counselor to the American Embassy in Tel Aviv.
* Martin Kramer, an expert on Islam at Harvard University and a fellow with the Jerusalem-based Shalem Center.
* Ben Chouake, head of the pro-Israel political action committee Norpac
A federal judge on Thursday struck down as "unconstitutional" a local law designed to crack down on illegal immigration, dealing a blow to similar laws passed by dozens of towns and cities across the United States.Why don't we just open our borders to everyone who shows up?U.S. District Judge James Munley said Hazleton, in northeastern Pennsylvania, was not entitled to implement a law that would impose fines on businesses that hire illegal immigrants and penalize landlords who rent rooms to them.
Oh, right, we already have!
The City Council on Wednesday got its first look at a $1.6 million plan aimed at balancing school enrollment by helping families continue to live in neighborhoods that are gentrifying around them, while at the same time helping local schools attract and retain wealthier newcomers.Now where in the Sam Hill did the Portland City Council and Portland City Commissioner Erik Sten get the authority to use city money for these kind of activities?The package includes rental assistance, gap mortgages and a large chunk for grants to parent and neighborhood groups. (My Emphasis)
The article says that in the last decade enrollment has declined by 11,000 students and cost the district $60 million. It further states that "...higher-income families moving into close-in neighborhoods frequently ship their kids off to private schools."
Maybe, the city should stop their socialist activities and tell the schools to get their house in order and start educating the kids. Why else would you spend money to send your kids to a private school? And while we are on the subject, where do the teachers send their kids?

Willamette Week is writing that
Three highly-placed Democratic sources tell WW that House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D-Portland) has decided to run in next May’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.Heavily democratic Portland, which went 70+% for Kerry, could be a real asset for Merkley. Right now Sen. Smith may be making some frantic phone calls.
A private firm's downgrade of its hurricane forecast raises an obvious question: If scientists can't get near-future projections in a limited area right, how can they predict the climate decades from now?Hurricane Global Warming Mover Mike
Mountrath is a small town in County Laois midway between Dublin and Limerick.
Shortly after 5pm the city, Mountrath, was hit by a freak hail storm that had many homes and businesses under water within minutes.The weather seems freaky this year! Maybe, it's, sharp intake of breathe, global warming![...]
“One minute there was a huge bang and then the hail started to fall,” said one elderly lady. “I heard the noise on my roof and honesty I didn’t know what was happening. It was like the end of the world.”
Mountrath Freaky Weather Mover Mike
Update:

North Carolina's House passed an eminent domain bill by a vote of 104-15. The bill HR 878 has this language and would amend the state's constitution:
Private property shall not be taken except for a public use, including preservation for that use. Public use does not include the taking of property for the purpose of thereafter conveying an interest in the property to a third party for economic development. This paragraph does not apply to the taking of blighted properties as defined by general law, nor to takings for access by the owner to property. As used in this paragraph, blight includes only the physical condition of the property taken.To be sure, there are a lot of weasel words that can have a variety of definitions, but its intent is to preserve property rights in the state. It was sent to the Senate where it was referred to the Ways and Means Committee, a convenient place where bills are sent to die. Now with the General Assembly near its end, the bill's proponents want it brought to the senate floor.(My emphasis) Just compensation shall be paid and, if demanded by the owner, shall be determined by a jury."
Sen. Charlie Dannelly, the committee chairman, D-Mecklenburg, said Tuesday he wouldn't know the bill's fate until the committee meets. Sen. Tony Rand, D-Cumberland, who as Senate Rules Committee chairman controls the flow of legislation in the chamber, questioned whether the amendment was necessary: "I'm not aware that eminent domain has ever been abused in North Carolina."That last sentence is exactly why many of us are against the Supreme Court decision on Kelo, and why we want specific protections written into the state constitutions. You can't trust some politicians to put your property rights above private interests who dole out campaign dollars. North Carolina Democrats, supposedly the party of the people, should be ashamed for bottling up this bill!Opponents argue that the amendment could discourage local governments from courting new businesses because it will be harder to accumulate large tracts of land. (My Emphasis)
Wednesday, July 25, 2007

The Trinidad and Tobago Newsday warns that some unusual activity is taking place offshore at Point Radix, Ortoire.
The suspected volcanic activity was discovered some five miles off Point Radix on Monday...Trinidad and Tobago Volcano Mover Mike[...}Fisherman Isaac Sendall, 50, said the activity had been evident for some time but appeared to intensify over the past few days forcing fishermen to stop going out at sea. “I just pray that what happen in Montserrat don’t happen here. We just have to pray,” he said, referring to the Kick-em-Jenny underwater volcano.
Update:

THE ROILING waters five miles off Trinidad's east coast might be a sign of a mud volcano growing on the ocean floor, belching out methane gas along with a slurry of mud and sediment, experts believe.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
How can any investor invest as a prudent man would without financial disclosure? Yet if you pull up a list of major holders of shares of FNM you find that CAPITAL RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT COMPANY holds 174,076,500 shares or 17.89% of the outstanding shares equal to $9,501,095,370 as of 31-Mar-07.
In the mutual fund catagory Yahoo shows that GROWTH FUND OF AMERICA INC holds 43,724,700 shares for investors or 4.49% of all the outstanding shares equal to $2,386,494,126 as of 31-Mar-07.
If I were a class action attorney, I might be salivating at the prospect of bringing suit for violations of the "prudent man rule".
Bill points out that Business Week has an article about the two companies. and says "the financial giants are loaded down with dicey loans as defaults increase."
...these government- sponsored companies, which own or guarantee 45% of all residential mortgages, have taken on more risk in recent years. Now they hold a sizable piece of subprime and other potentially toxic debt--securities and largely illiquid loans that could take a hit after the recent fire sale prompted by two Bear Stearns hedge funds. And given the state of the broader housing market, more trouble may lie ahead. That would be bad news for shareholders and investors who own their mortgage-backed securities. "We don't know how much trash is on their balance sheet," says Josh Rosner of researcher Graham Fisher & Co. "It seems they've shot themselves in the foot."In the middle of June, 2007, FNM was back within $6 of its high of $76 in 2004. Since then it has dropped to 10% to $62. FRE has been in a wide trading range of $53 to $70. Currently, trading at $59, this price has been major support since the first of the year. A move to $58 could set the stage for a test of the bottom of the 3 year range.
Related Posts (on one page):
- Another One Bites The Dust
- Prudent Man Rule Violated?
Monday, July 23, 2007

I received an email from faithful reader Laurene who follows earthquake activity on the eastside of the Cascades. She lives below Mt. Adams and I learned something about the mountain.
Laurene writes, "I could smell sulphur several times today from Mt Adams."
MM: "Have you ever smelled sulphur before this from Mt Adams?"
Laurene: "Yes, it is not uncommon. They used to mine sulphur from the top of Mt Adams.
"I think the last time I smelled it was almost two years ago.
"For about two days I would catch a whiff of the smell and then there was a series of very small e. quakes in the area. It didn't amount to anything.
"Yesterday was strong enough several times through out the day that it caught my attention. Several other family members noticed it also."
MM: "How do you know it was coming from the mountain?"
Laurene: "Hmmmm, good question. I don't.
"I guess I take it for granted it, that is where the smell is coming from. We have a new septic system, so it isn't that. No industry around here.
"I guess because the mountain is close, and known for sulphur, I assume.
"Yesterday was strong enough that I had the windows open and I could smell it in the house. Usually I have to be outside to smell it.
"I don't think it is St Helens, but I don't know that.
"Yesterday morning the webcorder showed some tremors. Those tremors don't mean they are coming from the mountain. They could be registering from somewhere else.
So much for my scientific observations.
"I haven't noticed any smell this morning.
"For people that climb the mountain it is a common smell, and as I said, they use to mine the sulphur. Pack trains would go up the mountain and bring the sulphur back down. For the smell to drift down into the valley here, means it must have been belching out more than normal yesterday."
Laurene's accounts are interesting. I didn't know sulphur was mined on the mountain. It, also may mean nothing. Mt. Hood has sulphur fumeroles near Goat's Peak. However it bears watching.

With two volcanoes continuously active for the past 11 years, the Russian Academy of Sciences is warning seismic activity has intensified at a third volcano, the Bezymyanny on Kamchatka.
In 1989, the Lincoln Savings and Loan Association of Irvine, Calif., collapsed. Lincoln's chairman, Charles H. Keating Jr., was faulted for the thrift's failure. Keating, however, told the House Banking Committee that the FHLBB and its former chief Edwin J. Gray were pursuing a vendetta against him. Gray testified that several U.S. senators had approached him and requested that he ease off on the Lincoln investigation. It came out that these senators had been beneficiaries of $1.3 million (collective total) in campaign contributions from Keating.The real problem for McCain is not his integrity or lack of it. The real problem? He has only been a darling of the left-leaning MSM, not of the Republican Party. His McCain-Feingold actions, his buddy-buddying with Sen. Kennedy over immigration etc. doom him for most Republicans.This allegation set off a series of investigations by the California government, the United States Department of Justice, and the Senate Ethics Committee. The ethics committee's investigation focused on five senators: Alan Cranston (D-CA); Dennis DeConcini (D-AZ); John Glenn (D-OH); John McCain (R-AZ); and Donald W. Riegle, Jr. (D-MI), who became known as the Keating Five. (My Emphasis)
It's never been over integrity!

In Washington, a House-Senate conference committee on a homeland security bill is considering whether to include a measure to protect, from lawsuit, Americans who report suspicious behavior. The so-called "John Doe" measure comes in response to a lawsuit by six imams who were booted from a plane that was about to fly from Minneapolis late last year because they were acting very suspiciously, refusing to sit in their assigned seats, asking for metal seat belt extenders, and speaking loudly and disparagingly about the United States. The imams plan to sue not only the airline but the passengers who reported their behavior — a step that, if successful, could have a chilling effect on whether other Americans come forward to report such behavior or whether they decide that doing so isn't worth the legal fees. Without this protection, Americans would have no reason to follow the motto of law enforcement agencies: "If you see something, say something."It doesn't appear the Dems can be trusted with our security. Keep it up boys and you'll find your party out on its rears!Separately, the "John Doe" legislation passed both the House and Senate by overwhelming margins. But key Democrats are trying to drop it from the homeland security bill, which would kill it. House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson isn't enthused about it, and Senate Judiciary Chairman Pat Leahy spoke against it on the Senate floor. The conference committee is meeting and will make a final decision on this vital legislation in the coming days.
Update:
IBD weighs in as well in Keeping The Flying Imams Airborne...he would not rule out military action against Iran, but believed a policy of sanctions could still persuade Tehran to drop its disputed nuclear program.Separately, Brown said he believed the current sanctions were having an effect, but he thought there would still be a third resolution.
French Foreign Ministry deputy spokesman Denis Simonneau told an online briefing it was necessary to maintain "a message of firmness" until Iran suspended sensitive activities.What kind of message are we sending to Iran when Congress threatens to pull troops out or defund them?
The Politico has an interesting analysis of the impact of current TV and its draw for women. So far, fewer women watch one of their own, Katie Couric, than when Dan Rather was anchor, and Couric has lost viewers to the men on opposing channels delivering the nightly news.
Geena Davis is another example of a TV series featuring a woman in a traditional male role, that of President of the US. Initially, women tuned in, but deserted the show for House.
Sen Hillary Clinton faces similar problems:
In a hypothetical matchup against former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, the Gallup Organization found women favoring Clinton by a modest margin, 53 percent to 47 percent.So, I say to my friends on the other side of the aisle, don't get your hopes up. In addition to the poor poll results vis a vis Guiliani, the Democrat candidates face a "Surge" that is working and I suspect, a growing backlash against Sen. Reid's threat of cutting off aid to our soldiers and a public that might finally respond to the aid and comfort by those who oppose the war.But Giuliani had a 16 percent lead over Clinton among male voters—a margin larger than President Bush’s lead over Democrats Al Gore and John F. Kerry in the previous two presidential elections.
[...]
“Most notably, it appears Clinton would run no stronger among women than Kerry did in 2004--or, for that matter, than Al Gore did when running against Bush in 2000.”
Maybe, the Democrats should hope for an economy that tanks; high interest rates, high inflation and high unemployment. That might do it, but recall that FDR couldn't get us out of a depression until we went to war. Isn't that where we are now?
Related Posts (on one page):
- Not So Fast, My Democrat Friends!
- Iran's Growing Ties With Syria
- What Took You So Long?

Have you been to the rim above Crater Lake and wondered what it would be like to ski or slide down the flank into the water? I've wondered about falling!
My friend Darryl wants to bicycle up the Haleakala on Maui and then coast the 38 miles down to Paia Bay Beach Park.

The Dallas Morning News has an article about sliding up to 25 miles an hour down the side of a "Cerro Negra, an ominous-looking active volcano about 45 minutes from León, (Nicaragua)."

The colonial town is surrounded by 13 volcanoes, including Cerro Negra, a cone of blackened rock known to erupt every seven years. It's perfect, it turns out, for tourists to hold onto a board and slide down its 40 degree sandy slope...

We humans love to make gravity work for us as we seek the thrill of living and cheat the hand of death. (Hat tip to Adventure Blog)

Costa Rican scientists are keeping an eye on Turrialba Volcano, on the Caribbean-slope, where thousands of small earthquakes have occurred over the past couple of days...Does it seem that the Ring of Fire is becoming more active?Experts, who continue to study the volcano, believe it's possible it could experience a mild eruption, spewing sediment and materials accumulated in its crater, not lava.
Turrialba is an active volcano that last erupted lava in 1866.
Sunday, July 22, 2007

Syrian President Bashar Assad welcoming his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Damascus on Thursday. (AP)
I know many of you are working hard to get the US out of Iraq, What are you going to do about the increasing threat from Iran?
Joel C. Rosenberg reports on the latest news of a tightening alliance between Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and Russia.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pledged to help Syria conduct nuclear research during a visit to Damascus earlier this week, the London-based Arabic-language newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported on Saturday. In exchange, Syria agreed not to engage in peace talks with Israel.Someone must "bell the cat." Is Sen. Lieberman the only on the left that will tell us the truth? The truth is: The US, under any administration, can not allow the threat to Israel to continue! The US will not allow Iran and Syria to go nuclear!"Syria [will] purchase 400 Russian tanks, 18 MIG-31 fighter jets, and additional up-to-date military equipment. Ahmadinejad also promised to train Syrian air force and naval officers in Iran, and pledged to construct a factory in Syria that would produce medium-range missiles. Iran will also supply Syria's navy with missiles, and provide the Syrian army with Iranian-made tanks and armored vehicles. In exchange, the Syrians agreed to continue supporting Iran's position on affairs concerning Lebanon. (My Emphasis)
Related Posts (on one page):
- Not So Fast, My Democrat Friends!
- Iran's Growing Ties With Syria
- What Took You So Long?
Saturday, July 21, 2007
It was just this May that we learned there were problems in two Bear Sterns hedge funds dealing in sub-prime mortgages. Now Vigilant Investor says one fund is worth only 9 cents on the dollar and the other is worthless!
The real question that should be on everyone’s mind is, how did securities being held on the book at one value go to being worth nothing almost overnight? Moreover, how can so many other funds go on continuing to value these securities by models showing similar high values in the wake of this near total implosion?Sudden Debt in Sigma Happens writes
Are you comfortable with probability and risk mathematics? I don't mean a passing acquaintance with the principles of throwing dice and winning at Monopoly, or figuring out the odds at a roulette table. I'm talking about a PhD in financial engineering, or at least a Master's in Mathematics with a Thesis in Probability Theory.That's why LTCM and now Bear Sterns got into trouble. Their mathamatic models of probability consider events that could derail their calculations as so rare that they can be comfortably ignored. They are 3-sigma events in math terms. But, those events did happen, now investors are out almost all their money and many more institutions now have to revalue their portfolios. That is a tough thing to do with leverage rising to 100:1.
Jim Puplava has a very interesting interview on this subject with Richard Bookstaber, Author A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation

Cananea Sonoroa, Mexico pounded by golf ball sized hail!
Cananea Sonoroa, Mexico Freak Weather Mover Mike
Update:
For you fans of her mucic, photos and persona, she will be appearing at The Wonder Ballroom on August 18th.
Storm and the BallsShould be a fun night!!!
Last concert of the summer! $15 advance, plus service charge, 21+; full bar
Just what is the status of HR 5818?
The bill is still alive
Latest Major Action: 8/31/2006 Referred to House subcommittee.And this from the Congressional Record:Status: Referred to the Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Trade, and Technology.
159. Also, a petition of Mr. Gregory D. Watson, a Citizen of Austin, Texas, relative to a petition urging the United States Congress to reject and oppose those portions of H.R. 5818 which would discontinue the minting of the American penny; jointly to the Committees on Financial Services and the Budget.HR 5818 Rep Kolbe, Jim [AZ-8] Mover Mike

Frank Askin writes in the Washington Post:
It seems that the House Judiciary Committee is considering seeking help from the Justice Department to enforce contempt citations against Bush administration officials such as Joshua Bolten who refuse to respond to congressional inquiries into alleged White House wrongdoing.Dan Eggen and Amy Goldstein writing in the Washington Post say:
Bush administration officials unveiled a bold new assertion of executive authority yesterday in the dispute over the firing of nine U.S. attorneys, saying that the Justice Department will never be allowed to pursue contempt charges initiated by Congress against White House officials once the president has invoked executive privilege.Askin writes that an inherent power of Congress, in the Constitution, is investigating issues over which it has the power to legislate, it can compel witnesses to appear and respond to questions. (My emphasis) Failure to testify can bring contempt of Congress charges that can be enforced by the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia. That gambit can be checked by the power of the president to pardon.
Congress has an additional power, the power to compel. They can order the sergeant-at-arms to enforce their demand to testify.
Congress could take into its own custody defiant administration officials who refuse to cooperate with legitimate inquiries into executive malfeasance. ... but as long as Congress could show a legitimate need for the information it was seeking pursuant to its legislative oversight functions, it would be standing on solid legal ground.This battle for power turned a trivial "serve at the pleasure of the President" firing into a Constitutional crisis. Is it all really at its core a rebuke to Bush over the Iraq war? Or is it a rebellion by Congress over its perceived usurpation of power? I'm concerned over its impact on our financial markets and the USD.
Friday, July 20, 2007
The main character is Alekei "Volk" Volkovoy. Volk fought and was severely wounded in Russia's war against Chechnya. On the surface Volk is a powerful gangster with a hand in virtually all underworld rackets. Really, Volk is a powerful killing machine, still working as a covert military Colonel.
Volk is hired or maneuvered to hijack a recently discovered and priceless Leonardo Da Vinci painting, Leda and the Swan, from the Heritage, a St. Petersburg museum.
Brent Ghelfi has served as a clerk on the U.S. Court of Appeals, been a partner in a Phoenix-headquartered law firm, and now owns and operates several businesses. He has traveled extensively throughout Russia. You know with certainty that Ghelfi has been to Russia. So much history in this tough, dark, and poor country. We look at the new Russia since the fall of the wall and the Chechnya war, through Ghelfi's eyes or Volk's and see a wild west where the threat of violence is everywhere.
I was struck by the bleakness of Moscow when Ghelfi, writes about the powerful Maxim pointing out his window at Red Square:
...where thousands of executions have been carried out before cheering throngs. Then it aims at the Konstantin and Yelena Tower, also known as torture tower, for the suffering it housed. Then it sweeps to take in Annunciation Tower, which Ivan the Terrible used as a political prison for the doomed. Finally it angles down to the subterranean bowels, where buckets of Russian blood have been spilled for sadistic sport, running in red rivulets of sorrow and pain into the Moscow River.I highly recommend Volk's Game and look forward to the sequel."Tourists," he says almost spitting. "They snap their pictures. Drink and eat until they are so fat they can hardly move. And they admire those walls. How Russian, they say. How historic. How beautiful."
He drops his arm and snorts disgust. "What fools. This place is fucking death, inside those walls and out. Invaders, patriots-they all die suffering. Nothing changes. But for now, in a nothing time, the blood is washed clean, and the herds of cattle see art."
We will be seeing more bad news from the mortgage sector re: CDOs and CLOs only to be exacerbated with higher rates. The Fed can't allow that to happen. In the meantime inflation, which I believe has been understated by the government, is now creeping out of the brown paper bag. Even Fed Chairman Bernanke acknowledges that inflation could be a problem.
Lower interest rates, a falling USD and rising inflation all help Gold which now has broker out of its 1 1/2 year slumber. Gold closed at $683.50 up from $648 in four weeks. It may not seem like much, but that's an annualized rate of 37%!
The science goes something like this. When sunlight falls on an organic solar cell, the energy generates positive and negative charges. If the charges can be separated and sent to different electrodes, then a current flows.Mitra is lead researcher and author, Somenath Mitra, PhD, professor and acting chair of NJIT's Department of Chemistry and Environmental Sciences.The solar cell developed at NJIT uses a carbon nanotubes complex, which by the way, is a molecular configuration of carbon in a cylindrical shape. The name is derived from the tube's miniscule size. Scientists estimate nanotubes to be 50,000 times smaller than a human hair. Nevertheless, just one nanotube can conduct current better than any conventional electrical wire. "Actually, nanotubes are significantly better conductors than copper," Mitra added.
Golly Oscars, Mr. Science!
The PAYjr Visa Buxx Card is issued by BankFirst, in Souix Falls, S.D., and lets teens put whichever image they want on the cards. It also lets parents closely monitor their child’s spending activity, and teaches those children how to use a credit card, or at least that's what PAYjr hopes.Today he asks, "How do we educate our children about money and credit? Internet Retailer tells us:
Even though most don’t have credit cards, children 8 to 14 are shopping online, says a new survey from Stars for Kidz, an agency that attempts to connect brands with very young consumers. The survey reports that 77% of children 8 to 14 have completed an online transaction. They are most interested in music, video games, movies, MP3 players and celebrities.Our own Umpqua Bank finds its way into the story. Open Source CU reports that Umpqua has a video out called the Lemonaire
In a nutshell (lemon peel?), the program is part viral marketing, part micro-lending. The bank is giving $10 plus basic lemonade stand supplies to qualifying kids, in order to help fund their first “start up.” Thereby teaching them about business, money and pursuing your dreams.I can see it now, some eight-year old is going to file for bankruptcy.
I suspect that just as kids are picking up the computer and doing things with it that leaves adults behind, so too, will they be doing things with credit cards at earlier ages. Perhaps they can teach us how to use credit more effectively. Based on foreclosure notices, we could use the help. And kudos to Umpqua for a hilarious and insightful video.
There is so much scrutiny of refs,as evidenced in this piece that ESPN did on four refereeing crews: The truth about refereeing in the NBA.
If you've watched games, however, you know there is a definite "homer" aspect to the refs calls, for proof all you have to do is look at the difference between home and away records of most teams. Sure, there is the road wearying travel, but fans don't like to see their teams lose at home.
Update:
Dave knows: Portland has posted that the Ref involved is Tim Donaghy. Remember him? He's the ref that Rasheed Wallace swore at from the loading dock and led to a seven game suspension.Thursday, July 19, 2007
"Premature and public discussion of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq reinforces enemy propaganda that the United States will abandon its allies in Iraq, much as we are perceived to have done in Vietnam, Lebanon and Somalia,"says Undersecretary of Defense Eric Edelman to Senator Hillary Clinton, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Senator Hillary Clinton Iraq Mover Mike
Related Posts (on one page):
- Not So Fast, My Democrat Friends!
- Iran's Growing Ties With Syria
- What Took You So Long?
I was real nervous about this procedure, never having experienced a catheter before. It wasn't half bad. The thing that kind of knocked both my wife and me off our pegs was the pathology report on the excised prostate.
Periprostatic stromal tissue, Primarily vessels but containing some peripheral nerve...no evidence of prostaic epitheliumApparently, our Doc didn't want to see any growth toward the prostate that could be nourish the tumor and connect to other parts of the body.
Gleason pattern 3/4 and neoplasm extending to the excisional margin.So, the cancer was worse than we thought. The biopsy revealed Gleason 3/3. My take was, "We made the right decision by having the prostate removed." Second, the tumor was not in the middle, but very close to the edge and now we wait to see if it escaped. We will take a new PSA in two months. That will allow time for any antigens to be gone from my body. If there is nothing there making new antigens, then that will mean they got it all. If not then some kind of radiation treatment would be indicated.
I'm no doctor. I listened carefully to what our Doc said knowing it's my body we are discussing. One part of my mind was yelling can't this be over! Another part said, why worry about something that is two months away. Let's make that decision based on the evidence at the time.
I started to write "Why worry about something over which I have no control?" However, I don't believe that. I believe in the power of prayer, mine and yours, and I believe in positive affirmations. I believe we attract what we think about. So here's my positive picture:
I am seeing a man in a doctors outfit handing a paper to my Doc. This paper is positively glowing. It not just white, but a warm, loving white light and on the paper is a big A+. I can see my Doc's face and he has a big smile.That's what I will picture when my mind wanders to cancer.
I am 63. More and more men, as baby boomers age, will experience some of what I experienced. We all have many friends and acquaintances that have already gone through prostate troubles. Fear of the unknown can be disabling. That's why I have chosen to write as I have.
You heard right! Katharine McPhee!

And I hear she likes older men. She didn't say "old" men, but then these ears don't pick up the sounds like they used to.
Anyway, Katharine is leading, so head over, watch her moves and vote. Aw, you know who to vote for! Katharine McPhee!
SEC to issue a Wells notice to Dow Jones director David Li, chairman and chief executive of Bank of East Asia Ltd..
A Wells notice is the final step before the SEC files a lawsuit. It allows the person or entity one last chance to persuade the agency to not bring the case.It's alledged that David Li passed on insider information to his friend Hong Kong businessman Michael Leung Kai Hung, who passed that information to his daughter and son-in-law, the Wongs, who made a profit of $8.2 in Dow Jones stock trading. That's a no-no as Martha Stewart will attest.
Wells Notice Dow Jones David Li Mover Mike
Update:

(AP Photo/Dennis Cook) (Dennis Cook - Associated Press)
The Washington Post reports,
A federal judge (U.S. District Judge John D. Bates) today dismissed a lawsuit filed by former CIA officer Valerie Plame and her husband against Vice President Cheney and top administration officials over the disclosure of Plame's name and covert status to the media.That it was incidental, doesn't seem to be a good reason for dismissal. That's kind of an "Oops!" that I thought the law would not allow.Bates said that Cheney and White House aides cannot be held liable for the disclosure of information about Plame in the summer of 2003 while they were trying to rebut criticism of the administration's war efforts levied by her husband, former ambassador Joseph C. Wilson IV. The judge said such efforts were certainly part of the officials' scope of normal duties.
I suppose, it's like a policeman who is pursuing a criminal and as part of his duties he damages the criminal's property, then the criminal is not entitled to compensation or relief.
I am not on the side of Wilson or Plame. I wish the judge had given a better reason for the dismissal.
Valerie Plame U.S. District Judge John D. Bates Mover Mike
Update:
Others reporting on the story so far are: The Brad BlogTuesday, July 17, 2007

BlueOregon in New Poll! Smith is in deep, deep trouble... is practically frothing at the mouth over weakness of Sen Gordon Smith as revealed in the latest DSCC poll in which only 34% of Oregonians say they would vote to re-elect.
Maybe, but when it comes to opposition, who have the Dems got, so far, with the balls to challenge "his weakness?" Certainly Novick and his radical leftist politics aren't going to get the job done. With the success of the surge, maybe Smith will scuttle back to the right and support the president. After all, who wants to be on the losing side!
Bush is as confident and upbeat as ever.You can say or think what you will about George Bush. However, he is not a man to check which way the wind is blowing. I for one saw that he was different from the first speech given after his election. His very words harken back to an era of straight talking and high blown words that were a part of the Greatest Generation's character. When the history of Iraq is written, the economic miracle there will be credited to Bush's moral compass....Bush must have confidence and optimism written into his DNA. As leaks, GOP defections and plummeting approval ratings swirl all around him, he remains resolute: The Iraq war must, and can, be won.
[...]
...Bush is adamant that he is going to see the troop surge through September and then rely on the advice of Gen. David Petraeus on how to proceed.
[...]
Bush gives the impression that he is more steadfast on the war than many in his own administration and that, if need be, he'll be the last hawk standing.
His confidence in Petraeus is total: "My job ... is to say to David Petraeus, 'I trust your judgment, I trusted you going in and I trust you now.'" He calls Petraeus "the most credible person in the fight at this moment."
The surge isn't working, you say and you want to pull out with the Democrats. Check out how some cities in Iraq are too quiet, even for the Maytag repairman in Jack Kelly'spiece Is Al Qaeda in Iraq on the Run?
Monday, July 16, 2007
MAP 6.6 2007/07/16 01:13:23 37.570 138.478 10.0 NEAR THE WEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Saturday, July 14, 2007
This is a funny book. The book opens with Wallace Boyer, car salesman, realizing he is an airplane passenger sitting next to Rant Casey's father Chester.
Rant Casey? "Werewolf Casey"-the worst Patient Zero in the history of disease? The "superspreader" who's infected half the country? America's "Kissing Killer"? Rant "Mad Dog" Casey?Boyer asks a question of Chester to get a conversation started. "How much did your plane ticket set you back?"
"Fifty dollars." "Round-trip." "Called a 'bereavement fare'." He tosses back the scotch. "Any way you look at it," he says, and elbows me in the ribs, "it's still a damn sweet deal on an airplane ticket."Palahniuk is gross. One day I'm sitting out front of Ockley Green reading Rant, waiting for my kids to board the bus. Seems in the part of the country where Rant lives, the wind howls and tips over garbage cans and the next day you'll see used sanitary napkins and condoms hanging from thr barbed wire fences. Rant can smell a sanitary napkin and tell you which woman in the community used it, and what she had for dinner. Same story with the condoms. I hurridly put down the book, feeling like I was about to be caught reading porn at school.
Palahniuk is full of ideas. For example, you know the myths of the god who mates with a mortal in order for his offspring to experience mortality. Suppose you could go back in time and kill your father or mother. Then you would experience being immortal. Forget about the "grandfather paradox."
Party crashing is a major part of the story. It is a way to exert control over life that is totally random. Consider his description of Green Taylor Simms who lives a fat free, healthy lifestyle being hit by a fat f--k, who has a heart attack from all the Mickey Dees. Sideswiped, they both plunge over the guard rail.
His low-chloresterol blood rushes to abandon me in hot, leaping spurts.Another great idea is Radio Graphic Traffic. The local radio station gives you all the gruesome details of the latest crash, injuries and broken bones. Rubber necking so you don't have to.Despite all my care, the heart-attack victim and I will both be just as dead.
Accidents do happen.
When you read Palahniuk, you step into a younger world a grundge world, of geeky people of "boosted peaks", a world of the near future.
Rant: An Oral Biography of Buster Casey Chuck Palahniuk Mover Mike
map 2.4 2007/07/14 06:43:46 45.272N 122.735W 23.9 2 km ( 2 mi) NNW of Barlow, OR
Barlow, Oregon Earthquake Mover Mike
Related Posts (on one page):
- Barlow Feels Another
- Active Quake Day in Oregon
Friday, July 13, 2007
I'm home and it's Friday. I have received a lot of emails saying that I am in your prayers. I am grateful for your kind words and thoughts.
I'm moving slow and counting down the days until I can have the catheter removed. It's an effort to sit at the computer to type, what with the drugs and the pressure on my sore abs, but I wanted you to know the surgery went well. Posting will be light. I did see we had a 3.3 quake near Portland and just had to post about it.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
I didn't feel the quake in NE Portland. My daughter Erica called and said she felt it and she lives on the west side of town, near Raleigh Hills. Did you feel the quake?
map 1.1 2007/07/11 15:37:26 45.140N 122.330W 20.9 17 km (10 mi) S of Estacada, OR
map 2.7 2007/07/11 02:52:19 41.830N 125.807W 10.0 128 km (80 mi) W of Brookings, OR
Related Posts (on one page):
- Barlow Feels Another
- Active Quake Day in Oregon
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Monday, July 9, 2007
Congress and bureaucrats don't like speculators, those that bring liquidity to markets, so after the 1929 crash, they changed the rules.
Prior to the act of 1934, if you wanted to short a stock, you arranged to borrow a stock and then you sold it. To avoid bear raids and piling on in a down or falling market, Congress ruled that you needed an up-tick, a slight move up in price to sell short. Stocks traded in 1/8ths then, so you needed the stock to move up an eighth (up-tick) or if the last trade when your order arrived at the trading post was an up-tick you needed the stock to trade again at that same price (zero-plus-tick) to sell short. You can imagine how hard that was in a falling market when there was a panic to sell. Congress didn't want additional selling on top of the panic selling.
Now this rule change only applied to listed stocks and it did not apply to commodities. Commodities had daily trading limits. A commodity could trade up or down the limit every day for some time, before you could get a trade off in the trending direction. When I was a broker, I did not like these particular rules of the 1934 Act. I wanted to get the trade off as rapidly as possible, in either direction, to take advantage of the trend.
Now, I have mixed feelings about the rule change. I'm not on the side of government rules that get passed after a crisis. What good are they after the horse has escaped the barn? On the other hand, I have posted a number of times about Reg SHO. I have written the SEC has allowed numerous naked shorts to occur, by that I mean the shares were never borrowed before the short sale and the SEC has allowed those trades to be open for months, meaning the seller never had to deliver shares to the buyer. Now, when markets collapse, there will be no restrictions on these same sellers to feed on the panic.
The Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and all its provisions, which I was tested on as part of the Series 7 Test, was passed to safeguard investors. Maybe, technology has made the need for the Act, obsolete, but we have eliminated many of the rules that were passed at that time, such as Glass-Steagall of 1933, which separated investment and commercial banking activities.
It's interesting that this proposed rule change comes at a time when the DJIA is very extended and the S&P has never confirmed the highs put in by the Dow.
Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Glass-Steagall+Act+of+1933 SEC Reg SHOMover Mike
Update:
Not so fast says Capt. Ed Morrissey and Jim Geraghty of NRO. Seems the story is falling apart.
Capt. Ed writes
The information on Thompson's association with Arent Fox says that they hired Thompson specifically for lobbying on behalf of foreign customers, which would require the FARA registration with an exact date that such lobbying began. This implies that Thompson wouldn't have been available to the NFPRHA in Septemer 1991, and make the document on which the Times based its entire story somewhat suspect.Jim Geraghty writes that
...Judith DeSarno, who was president of the family planning association in 1991, said Thompson lobbied for the group for several months.He hadn't appeared in any western movies until this year. Now that reference has disappeared from the LA Times story.At one of the meals, she recalled, Thompson re-enacted a cowboy death scene from one of his movies.
Whoa, doggies! Who's out to get Fred?
Global Warming is So Yesterday
The collapse of the global warming hot air balloon promises to be one of the most interesting spectacles of the next few years. Despite the overwhelming support of powerful corporations, formerly trendy cultural figures, and many governments, the truth will out. In the meantime, there will be no worldwide shortage of irony and hypocrisy as the privileged try to sell sacrifice and conservation to those who lead more modest lives in the name of a poorly-substantiated alarmist theory.Based on the turnout for Live Earth, others know it too!

