A new NIE by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting a previous intelligence report.My first thought was goody, we don't have to nuke them before the end of President's term ending in January, 2009. However, reading through the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), there are enough guesses, almost any one of which could go wrong, that I'm left wondering if we should use the NIE to cover the bottom of the bird cage. Here's the main point:
We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.A few sentences later the report states:
We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weaponsAnd then:
We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.Part B says:
We continue to assess with low confidence that Iran probably has imported at least some weapons-usable fissile material, but still judge with moderate-to-high confidence it has not obtained enough for a nuclear weapon. We cannot rule out that Iran has acquired from abroad—or will acquire in the future—a nuclear weapon or enough fissile material for a weapon. Barring such acquisitions, if Iran wants to have nuclear weapons it would need to produce sufficient amounts of fissile material indigenously—which we judge with high confidence it has not yet done.In Part C:
Iran resumed its declared centrifuge enrichment activities in January 2006, despite the continued halt in the nuclear weapons program. Iran made significant progress in 2007 installing centrifuges at Natanz, but we judge with moderate confidence it still faces significant technical problems operating them.Continuing:
We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough (highly enriched uranium) HEU for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikelyWhat? A firm judgement! Most polls have a fudge factor of + or - some percent. What's the fudge factor here?
Here's what we're are left with, Iran stopped their nuclear weapons program in 2003, unless they restarted it. We're pretty darn sure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon, unless they got one from outside the country. If Iran wants to have its own nuclear weapons, they would have to produce HEU, which they are technologically capable of, and we know that they are installing centrifuges. We think late 2009 is the earliest they could have a nuclear weapon, but the Iranians are sneaky little devils and are capable of subterfuge. The big reason we think they stopped in 2003 is our program of strength and international pressure is working. Which is a pat on the back to Bush.
How can any president make an informed decision on crap like this?
