Mover Mike

Last week the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center issued their drought forecast for 2006 through May:

Why could a new Dust Bowl drought occur? The low-level jet stream-a fast-moving current of winds close to the Earth's surface-travels from east to west across the Atlantic, then typically curves northward as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico, bringing moisture to the Great Plains. Abnormal sea-surface temperatures have caused this low-level jet stream to continue westward and to weaken, which is preventing much-needed moisture from reaching the agriculturally critical region. The shift in the jet stream is also allowing a southerly flow from Mexico to bring much drier air northward into the Plains.

The severe winter in Eastern Europe’s major grain regions have killed on average about 30% of the crop. Due to drought in the Ukraine and elsewhere, winter wheat planting was down by about 18%. Normally those losses would be made up in the US and Canada, but if forecasts are right from the NWS, our grain crops could suffer. According to London Irvine Report

The probability is for higher prices across the year ahead. Though wheat is an obvious candidate, grains have a tendency to move as a group and that includes Soybeans, corn and oats.

Beans in the Teens?

Is it too early to wonder about the ramifications of rapidly rising food prices and that effect on society?

Drought commodities climate

Update:

Drought Canada Economics

I have written about the possibility of a coming drought. Sometime ago trying to imagine life in the dustbowl of the thirties and the broken dreams, (maybe akin to the hurricane ravaged areas of the South), I wrote this poem called

Ash Wednesday

Wednesday has always been a good day to travel.
The Ford plump with boxes of worn-outs
right to the wooden side-rails, waits
for Ma, the kids and me. This fertile land
moved us like Magi, lies broken,
fine as flour, under the windows.
Dirt so dry it will wring the promise,
rubs our house sore.

The Sheridan Hotel is scoured clean
by the wind that Cowboys ride
on the theatre marquee, names leaning
like tombstones on Boot Hill. Auction notices,
the kerchiefs of wailing women, flap on poles
and dusky waves of Cottonwoods line wheel ruts
that crash like dreams on outcrops
sharp like broken bones.

Ash WednesdayN poetry Drought