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Mover Mike

Mike is a retired stock broker, and now supports his wife's furniture business. He is her warehouseman, deluxer, and marketing guru. In addition, he writes poetry and finds abundance, health and joy in the world around him while pondering life's little mysteries

Is Lehman Next?
That's the big question. Lehman (LEH) has dropped from $40 to $25 today!
Analysts at Deutsche Bank sent an alert to their clients saying, "Lehman is not Bear." They cited Lehman's higher levels of liquidity, the support it has from its counterparties, its higher level of diversification, and the experience of Lehman's CEO as reasons for its opinion.

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Lehman Follow-Up
  2. Is Lehman Next?
Lehman Follow-Up
After Bear Stearns fell, I asked Is Lehman Next? Lehman came out with its earnings report last week that soothed Wall Street's worries.

However, in a piece The Debt Shuffle by Jesse Eisinger, Eisinger's concludes:

The picture emerging is that of an investment bank that is dancing as fast as it can
Eisinger points out that:
  • Lehman’s balance sheet isn’t shrinking, as we’d expect. - Other financial institutions are taking down their exposure right now amid the market turmoil to be prudent
  • Lehman got more leveraged, not less. - The investment banks “gross” leverage hit 31.7 times equity, up from the fourth quarter and way up from last year’s 28.1.
  • Lehman includes debt in its calculation of equity. Say what?
  • Lehman reaped substantial earnings gains because investors thought it is more likely to go bankrupt.
  • Lehman’s write-downs seem tiny. - The bank only wrote these assets down by 3 percent. And its Level III assets —the hardest to value portion of these instruments—were written down by only the same percentage.

If Lehman fails, how much will the FED have to spend this time and will JP Morgan ride again to the rescue?

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Lehman Follow-Up
  2. Is Lehman Next?